Reliable market researcher Yole reported the electric motor market to exceed US$13 billion by 2027, with major technical innovations and a supply chain reorganization.
The other market findings, comments and facts and figures shared by Yole includes:
The traction motor market is dominated by big OEMs: Tesla, BYD, and Volkswagen shared more than 40% of the market in 2021.
The full-electric vehicle market is expected to represent more than 17% of the total passenger and light commercial vehicle market by 2027.
Multi-motor adoption and motor power evolution are two other trends expected to increase the EV traction motor market.
Today, one of the main drivers for power electronics is vehicle electrification. The vehicle electric motor is a key part of the powertrain and any change in the motor will impact the characteristics of the other components of the powertrain, such as the battery and inverter.
Abdoulaye Ly Technology & Market Analyst, Power Electronics at Yole comments:
“Four technologies are mainly used in traction motors in full EV s. They are PMSMs ; PMaSynRMs , Ims and EESMs . Today, PMSM technology is widespread in the EV industry. At Yole, we expect it to remain the primary technology in the coming years thanks to its high power density and efficiency at normal speeds. Also, China is the biggest EV market, and almost all Chinese vehicle makers use PMSM.”
One key point for electric motor manufacturing is that the magnets used in PMSM are made with rare-earth materials, with refineries mainly in China. The magnets can account for up to 40% of the total PMSM cost. Non-Chinese vehicle makers that use PMSMs may suffer severely from magnet shortages or cost fluctuations if one of the following scenarios happens:
• The Chinese government imposes restrictions on rare-earth material exports to satisfy local demand.
• China enters a conflict with Taiwan, and American and European governments impose commercial sanctions on the Chinese government.
Considering both scenarios, Yole’s analysts expect non-Chinese vehicle makers to reduce their dependence by developing new technologies or improving existing magnet-free technologies. Vehicle makers mainly use one of three business models for traction motors: in-house manufacturing; outsourcing; and a hybrid business model that combines in-house manufacturing and outsourcing. The traction motor is part of the powertrain. There is also a definite trend toward integrating all the powertrain elements, with vehicle makers adopting a holistic approach that considers the powertrain as a single item.
This holistic approach completely reshapes the motor supply chain:
• Vehicle makers have a single supplier for the powertrain or manufacture their powertrain in-house.
• Motor and inverter manufacturers increase their competencies by acquiring other companies or investing to offer complete solutions to their clients.
The traction motor market is led by three vehicle makers: Tesla, BYD, and Volkswagen. In the Motors for automotive – Focus on full electric vehicles report, Yole’s power electronics team reviews what the leading Tier 1 part suppliers are doing, such as Nidec and Vitesco. They are very aggressive players in this highly competitive landscape, with impressive investments in motor manufacturing and numerous partnerships with vehicle makers.